Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-02 2.854225 3.941235 5.508595 8.021939 1.213129e+01 1.894291e+01 3.195953e+01
2025-03-09 1.892014 3.023159 5.010598 9.079944 1.819224e+01 4.086959e+01 1.177762e+02
2025-03-16 1.322643 2.368416 4.527073 10.019112 2.682764e+01 9.387555e+01 6.329960e+02
2025-03-23 0.989268 1.956564 4.267517 11.545184 4.298714e+01 2.788987e+02 1.207215e+04
2025-03-30 0.753921 1.621017 3.974109 13.030684 6.953805e+01 1.085251e+03 1.211900e+11
2025-04-06 0.550788 1.254133 3.342795 12.694123 9.242405e+01 4.063125e+03 NaN
2025-04-13 0.405120 0.962511 2.734773 11.685289 1.122069e+02 1.838055e+04 NaN
2025-04-20 0.328913 0.823655 2.538681 12.705650 1.851779e+02 1.577574e+06 NaN
2025-04-27 0.281815 0.746606 2.518354 15.188073 3.948950e+02 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 0.246184 0.688095 2.536554 18.622089 1.025806e+03 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 0.210308 0.611681 2.413536 20.798585 2.469659e+03 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 0.174173 0.518442 2.129931 20.274904 4.299493e+03 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 0.141030 0.426215 1.798692 18.328120 6.153578e+03 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 0.123287 0.385097 1.724449 20.540215 2.638105e+04 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 0.107810 0.346354 1.633035 22.434106 1.867546e+05 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 0.096424 0.319494 1.596088 25.947765 3.221763e+07 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 0.086285 0.293674 1.544254 29.381532 NaN NaN NaN
2025-06-29 0.074538 0.256364 1.375687 27.918490 NaN NaN NaN
2025-07-06 0.063956 0.220868 1.194644 24.872469 NaN NaN NaN
2025-07-13 0.057954 0.204121 1.147599 27.151098 NaN NaN NaN
2025-07-20 0.054099 0.195853 1.163208 33.299007 NaN NaN NaN
2025-07-27 0.050935 0.189671 1.193112 42.242163 NaN NaN NaN
2025-08-03 0.047026 0.178381 1.165902 47.947151 NaN NaN NaN